Saturday, July 4, 2020

MY LETTER TO PRIME MINISTER AND VARIOUS CHIEF MINISTERS - MADE INTO VIDEO AND SENT ON TWITTER ON 25TH JUNE 2020


To
Respected Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi
narendramodi1234@gmail.com; connect@mygov.nic.in.

Respected Prime Minister,

At the outset, I wish you, ALL SUCCESS, in the ongoing war against Corona virus.

I had addressed to you a very important suggestion on 10TH,May,2020. I had sent this Hindi language Video to your Twitter handles and E-Mail IDs. I do not know if it has reached  your attention. 

Time is running fast and all statistics so far indicate that we have not won the war, as of today. Our efforts are intensifying and expanding. 

But, as we detect thousands of New Patients and quarantine them daily, Corona is spreading to Newer Patients faster than our detection rate. The reality is that, it is our people who are spreading Corona faster to Newer Patients, out of (i) lack of knowledge, (ii) carelessness, and (iii) lack of enforcement of discipline. These are the 3 main factors Governments have to focus on

The worldometer Corona graph had turned very steeply upward from April,1st and much more steeply from May,1st. It is likely to turn much more steeper from June,1st.

There are no real medicines and no vaccines as of today. Huge New problems like the migrants issue are cropping up suddenly. 

In this scenario, there is also great urgency to loosen the LOCK DOWN and open up the economy. Which factory, which market, which Mall, which train and which Bus will turn up as the next cluster for corona is now, difficult to tell. Any of them or all of them can be, if the above 3 factors are not addressed immediately.

India today needs an alert and highly responsive public and a more alert and more responsive Governments. Both these are possible to achieve. If the will is there, the way is there.

I wish to make 2 extremely important and practical suggestions – to achieve a decisive win  in this Covid19 war by July 15th . I repeat, we can achieve a decisive win over Corona by implementing these 2 simple, practical suggestions.

As my first suggestion, I reiterate my May 10th suggestion -  that Posters, Bill Boards and wall writings are the best and the most infallible form of accurate communication. Not TV speeches, not Press interviews, Sir. These are bad means, they fail and they miscommunicate. They confuse and confound. That is what is happening for last 3 months.

Most people across the country are still (1) not following Social distancing, (2) Not wearing the Face Mask, (3) Not following personal Hygiene - after coming to home from outside, (4) Not sanitizing things which they bring home from outside (5) Not undergoing Medical checkup at the earliest sign of an infection (6) Not going for Home or Hospital quarantine after detection by Doctors also (7) Not aware of Hospital Facilities entitled (8) Not aware of Hospital Discipline and (9) Not aware of Potential for recovery

These are essential things but still (i) either not known well(ii) or not followed - among people. In the minds of people, there are lots of doubts, suspicions, confusions, rumours and very little authentic information. This must change IMMEDIATELY. 

But How? Every District collector must prepare 5 to 6 well designed Posters in local language with authentic Guidelines on one aspect of corona Management in each poster and get them pasted at various prominent points in each town and each affected cluster point. There must be Huge Bill Boards also with such information at very important points.

Sir, This, and only this method, avoids all pit falls of present government communications on Corona war. Presently, there are serious communication failures in India’s war against corona. These must be corrected without delay.

I had taught and researched communication skills etc for 5 years at a national Academy at Hyderabad and I am supposed to know, sir.

I must reiterate the advantages of these Posters and Bill Boards. These are in clear, written format and are available for all men, women and children, - to see, read, and re-read again and again, daily. These are available at most frequented places. After reading, people can’t be misled by media or  other interested parties. In case of any doubt, people can re-read  and discuss among themselves again. But, today, there is no such authentic information but there is lot of misinformation. 

Central and State Governments are now unlocking the Economy and opening up more and more sectors. So, Factories, Buses, trains, planes, Autos, shops etc will all become operational. Sooner or later, Malls also will become operational. 

But, in the absence of clear information and clear  understanding of the Dos and Don’ts, there will be violations and Huge catastrophe all over the country. Information and Enforcement are 2 sides of the same coin. One is useless without the other. Now, both sides are absent. 

Spitting was made a punishable offence and it stopped immediately. Same thing will happen with Social distancing and Mask wearing – if they are made punishable offences for next 2 months.

Well designed Posters, Bill Boards and wall writings will prevent all miscommunications and all communication failures. These must be replicated by shops and Malls to the extent relevant to them at their entrances and inside.

This is my first suggestion, sir. My second suggestion is even more important, Sir. Every vital information, which needs adherence must also have an enforcement plan.

Likewise, every war needs a target date to win, and an action plan to win within that target date. 

I urge you to kindly think of July 15thh , about 2 months from now, as the Target date to convert all zones in India into Green zones. All states must adopt this target date and prepare for this. All public must be made known of this and made to prepare mentally for a stricter discipline till July 15th,  so that country can get rid of Corona.

All states must first of all paste well designed Posters, Bill Boards, and wall writings at all prominent places. 

Citizens must be asked to follow SOCIAL DISTANCING of 3 feet at least, in all public places like Roads, shops, offices, factories etc very strictly.

Police must ensure that - whoever is violating must pay a fine of Rs.50, each time. This should be made mandatory till July 15th. All public must know it. Social distancing must be  mandatory and not obligatory, till July 15th. Violation  must be punishable with Rs.50 fine each time. 

But, there should be minimum or no Lathi use for all this. Except when public resort to violence. Police must learn to enforce Law without much Lathi use.

Apart from Police, Every shop owner, every factory head and every office head must be authorized  and ordered to collect the fine and remit it to the state like Tax. Police must be rigorously active on this fine collection  and enforcement of social distancing up to July 15th. 

District head must be responsible for getting his district into green zone by July 15th. State Governments must fully energize themselves to implement this action plan. 

Testing and quarantining must be intensified by all states to their utmost ability and satisfaction to achieve this target. Public must be asked to cooperate in this. Hospitals must provide good food and medicines. Children and elders must be allowed Home quarantine, with strict conditions. Required Medicines and precautions must be provided at homes for them.

By June 30th – Districts must achieve that there are no fresh cases at all or cases are in single digits only in every district. All potential cases must have been Home quarantined or Hospital quarantined. From July 15th, there should be no fresh cases at all. Testing and quarantining must be intensified to achieve this as a NATIONAL TARGET. State Health secretaries must be made fully responsible to achieve this as their State Target.

If there is clear information of Dos and DONTs for public, if there is clear plan of action for Governments, if there is punishment for violation of Social distancing and face Mask, India will succeed. If anybody can do it, It is India. Will you prove it again sir?

As the last sloka of Geeta says - 

Yatra Yogeswarah Krushno, Yathra Partho Dhanurdharah
Tatra Sreervijayorbhootrhir Dhruvaaneethir Mathirmama

Please become the ever victorious Partha, my dear Prime Minister, Sir. 

Lord Krishna will certainly lead you and bless you  and India with Shree, Vijaya and Keerthi (Bhoothi) of all types, as promised in the Geeta.

I am
Your fan and well wisher always

V.Vijayamohan,

Copy to :
Respected Chief Ministers of All States
And other Dignitaries

Respected Sir,

As You all Know, every day, thousands of casualities are occurring now. The only way to avert them is better awareness, better adherence and light punishments for every violation.

I am placing my suggestions before all of you. The Nation is in the hands of the Prime minister and you all.

I wish you – ALL SUCCESS in this war against Corona


v.vijayamohan

Thursday, July 2, 2020

UNITED PHOSPHOROUS LTD (UPL) - Q4 FY 20 RESULTS REVIEW


UNITED PHOSPHOROUS LTD (UPL)
Q4 FY 20 RESULTS REVIEW

UPL Limited, formerly United Phosphorus Limited, manufactures and markets agrochemicals, industrial chemicals, chemical intermediates, and specialty chemicals, and also offers crop protection solutions. 

SEEDS : DELIVERS HIGHEST QUALITY SEEDS in many countries
Integrated crop health solutions
Crop protection : protecting and nurturing food and livelihoods
Multiple engaging solutions to farmers
Headquarters: Bandra West, Mumbai


Management                                                                                   
R D Shroff      CMD                                      
S R Shroff       Vice Chairman

Number of employees: 7,435 (FY18)

RESULTS REVIEW

UPL (in Rs. Cr.)           Mar '20           Dec '19            Mar '19           YOY     QOQ   
Net Sales                     11,141             8,892               8,525               30.69   25.29  
P B T                            972                  1,037              204                  376.47 -6.27   
NPT                              617                  701                  206               199.51  -11.98 
Equity                          153                  153                  102                  50        0         
Basic EPS                     8.08                 9.16                 4.05             99.51   -11.79 

MP  447                            
52 Wk L/H     240.3     709.2   
 
TECHNICAL RATING                                     
Very Bullish                                    
                                        
Valuation 
                                        
Market Cap (Rs Cr.)           34,248.34                         
P/E               74.38                  
Book Value (Rs)          105.02                              
Dividend (%)       300                     
Industry P/E         39.89                         
EPS (TTM)     6.03                                 
P/C        25.34                         
Price/Book           4.27                           
Dividend Yield.(%)      1.34                                 
Face Value (RS)          2                         
Deliverables (%)        29.58                                

Share Holding Pattern in (%)                                     
                                        
                  Mar-20   Sep-19                      
Promoters     30.4       30.4                           
Pledged        7.96       2.32                           
FII/FPI        45.69     47.81                         
Total DII     17.14     15.11                         
Fin.Insts       6.82       5.76                           
Insurance Co 1.97       1.11                           
MF               4.52       4.7                      
Others DIIs   3.83       3.54                           
Others          6.77       6.68                           
Total           100       100                     
                                                                                               
                                       
       Why is UPL share falling?
Risks: Prolonged impact of Covid-19 could displace UPL's deleveraging plans and could be a threat to ratings and forex exposure (especially in Brazil) and a fall in China's pesticide price. Apr 1, 2020

                                                         

ORIENTAL AROMATICS LTD - Q4 FY 20 RESULTS REVIEW


ORIENTAL AROMATICS LTD

Q4 FY 20 RESULTS REVIEW

• Oriental Aromatics Ltd is One Of The Largest Indian manufacturers of a variety of Aroma Chemicals, Camphor, Fragrances and Flavours.

Management 

    Dharmil A Bodani    Chairman & Managing Director
    Shyamal A Bodani   Executive Director
    Satish Kumar Ray   Executive Director - Operations
    Animesh Dhar         Executive Director - Operations

(in Rs. Cr.)    Mar '20  Dec '19  Sep '19  Jun '19   YOY QOQ     
Net Sales      170 175 204 212 -20.02    -3.28     
Raw Materials 95 110 143 140 -32.09    -14.19   
P B T             31   23   21   28   8.31       33.39    
N P T             24 18     27   18   32.65     35.2      
Equity 16.83        
EPS(Rs.5FV)  7.09  5.24  7.94   5.34  32.77   35.31    
EBITDA  356 283 25.8%
EBITDA Margin (%)     20.98%  16.13%  485 Bps
PAT Margin (%)   14.08%  10.03%  405 Bps
MP  252                                   
PE   8.89                                        
52 Wk L/H     117.05   252.9  
                              

Valuation   
                                 
Market Cap (Rs Cr.)                  804.32                       
P/E               9.29                           
Book Value (Rs)                 137.82                       
Dividend (%)              50                       
Market Lot                  1                         
Industry P/E                14.75                         
EPS (TTM)                  25.78                         
P/C               7.62                           
Price/Book                  1.73                           
Dividend Yield.(%)                   1.05                           
Face Value (RS)                 5   
                      
•Wants to become a global player in the specialty aroma chemicals 

Business Mix 

•Aroma Chemicals and Camphor - Pinene  derivatives, petro chem derivatives, and musk and sandalwood derivatives, - to clients across the world.

•Flavours and Fragrances – to marquee FMCG companies

Manufacturing Plants & Capacities

Aroma Chemicals and Camphor:

•Bareilly,U.P.-12,000MTPA
•Vadodara,Gujarat-6,700MTPA 

Flavours and Fragrances:

•Ambernath,Maharashtra-6,000MTPA

R&D Facilities 

•Centre for Innovation at Mumbai
•Process re-engineering lab at Vadodara

Company Overview 

• Today, The Company is one of the largest manufacturers of variety of specialty based aroma chemicals, and camphor, with a vast product range including Synthetic Camphor, Terpineols, Pine Oils, Astromusk, several other specialty aroma chemicals finding applications in Cosmetics, Soaps, Pharmaceuticals and many more.

•OAL’s custom designed fragrances are found in fine fragrances, incense sticks, candles, and various FMCG products like soaps, shampoos, hair oils, detergents,etc. and it also provides flavours for ice-creams, bakeries, confectionaries, beverages, chewing gums, chocolates etc.

•The Company has evolved into a one stop solution provider for the flavor and fragrance industry.

SALES :

INTERNATIONAL : 30%
INDIAND :           70%

APPLICATIONS :

Incense Sticks
Air Fresheners
Cosmetics
Detergents
Balms
Pooja
Hair oils, shampoos, soaps etc

Q4-FY20 / FY20 Operational Highlights

• better demand for specialty aroma chemicals, which resulted in higher volume of production and value of sales as compared to the previous financial year.

•Despite reduction in Raw material prices the company was able to hold on to the selling prices which improved the margins.

•Strong cash flow generation: As on 31st March, 2020 cash from operations stood at INR 1,809 Mn owing to improvement in the working capital cycle and better sales realization, this enabled the company to reduce its net debt by INR 1,345 Mn to INR 508 Mn. 

•Debt reduction was achieved after accomplishing the payment of dividend of INR 142 Mn and a capex of Rs. 99 Mn.

•The company has drawn out a capex plan of Approximately INR 1,000 Mn for FY 2020-2021.

•Company’s focus is to maintain the sustainable growth in the business and maintain the margins.

•ROE as on 31stMarch 2020 stood at 18.57% which higher by 3.91% against last financial year.

•Debt / Equity ratio as on 31st March 2020 improved to 0.11 from 0.47 last financial year.