Saturday, July 7, 2018

PAPER INDUSTRY - REVIEW - 5 TOP PAPER COs ANALYSED



PAPER INDUSTRY REVIEW

There are many companies in the Paper Industry in India. Notable amongst them are : NR Agarwal, West Coast Paper, Star Paper, Seshasayee Paper, Ruchira Papers, Shreyans Ind, JK Paper, Intl Paper APPM, Pudumjee Paper , Genus Paper.

From this list, now, I first omit those Companies which are making losses. We will not consider them. We will now calculate the margin of profits to sales (per Rs.100)– and shortlist - NR Agarwal (18.07%); West Coast Paper (13.05), Star Paper (12.83); Seshasayee paper (11.12); and Ruchira papers (10.97)

Those with profit margins below 10% I am omitting from our consideration

We will examine each of these 5 now on some crucial parameters :

N.R AGARWAL : FV RS.10 :

Net Sales
345.45
315.17
276.62
276.53
282.29
Net Profit
24.4
25.85
18.58
21.42
24.06
Diluted EPS
14.33
15.19
10.92
12.58
14.13

MP IS 388 AND PE IS 6.77

PRICE TREND INDICATES A FALL OF PRICE BY 21% IN LAST 6 MONTHS, BUT GAIN BY 37% IN ONE YEAR

WEST COAST PAPERS : FV Rs.2

Net Sales
493.57
408.58
421.53
386.52
473.3
Net Profit
78.78
42.95
47.79
53.71
50.72
Diluted EPS
11.93
6.5
7.23
8.13
7.68
MP
257

PE
5.38









PRICE TREND INDICATES THAT PRICE HAS GONE UP BY 32% IN LAST ONE YEAR.


STAR PAPER :FV : RS.10

Net Sales
93.98
87.07
81.3
88.93
83.23
Net Profit
14.01
12.06
14.68
13.52
18.33
Diluted EPS
8.98
7.72
9.4
8.66
11.74

MP is 160 and PE comes to 4.45

Price trend during last one year indicates that price has comedown consistently by 22%


SESHASAYEE PAPERS : Rs.10

Net Sales
347.9
294.82
227.28
238.64
320.15

Diluted EPS
34.85
24.51
20.82
17.22
31.34

Net Profit
43.96
30.92
26.26
21.75
39.54









MP
874





PE
6.27




















PRICE TREND INDICATES A 14% RISE IN ONE YEAR



RUCHIRA PAPERS : FV RS.10

Net Sales
107.33
117.54
104.02
118.7
114.75
Net Profit
5.92
11.89
8.39
11.81
9.26
Diluted EPS
2.66
5.23
3.7
5.25
4.13







MP
110

PE
10.34














Price trend during last one year indicates that price has consistently come down by 30% in last one year

1.  Note : readers can also visit my YouTube videos section and listen to all of my videos. Click on this link for the Paper Industry review :    https://youtu.be/TUEprJMRB8A


Wednesday, July 4, 2018

MIDCAP & SMALL CAP CORRECTION - VAKRANGEE -A COMPLETE REVIEW - WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS FOR VAKARANGEE

MIDCAP & SMALL CAP CORRECTION

VAKRANGEE

From January, 3rd week or so, of this year, market has been in a correction mode. Mid caps and small caps especially have undergone severe correction during this period.

This period, unfortunately coincided with some adverse occurrences in respect of companies like Vakrangee.

A news paper at Mumbai carried some adverse comments on Vakrangee. This was followed by severe reaction in the market on Vakrangee's share price.

There were some other rumours of Vakrangee purchasing some huge shares in PC Jeweller. This drew adverse reaction from Investors and others in the press etc.

All this was clarified by the Management of Vakrangee through Media reasonably logically. Vakrangee sought to sell off the shares of PC Jeweller early and never to do such purchases in future.

This was somewhat convincing and the share price recovered partially but not fully. The company also announced a capital allocation Policy for Buy Back of shares and paying dividend to investors. This boosted Investor confidence to some extent.

Then came the Bomb shell - in the shape of the Auditor's resignation. The Auditor stated that the company is not furnishing some information in the absence of which it cannot complete the audit. So, the Audit is resigning.

Nothing could be done by Vakrangee Management to persuade the Auditor to resume Auditing. So, it appointed another Auditor who completed the Audit eventually.

The audit certificate was unconditional. But the accounts themselves consisted of 2 items which reduced the net profits severely as below : 

"Other expenses includes Rs.220 Crores towards amounts written off as bad debts pertaining to the legacy business of e-governance, during the quarter ended March 31 , 2018." 

The cumulative loss recognised on disposal of equity instruments for the year ended March 31 , 2018 is Rs.3,086.34 lakhs. Dividend recognised during the year for the investment disposed off is Rs. 46.96 lakhs. 

These two items reduced the Net profits severely in Q4. On the face of it, these will not probably have any effect on the results of Q1 to be declared shortly. One good thing is, it seems to be giving up its legacy business of e-governance where it is unprofitable. 

The company postponed its capital allocation policy - including dividend indefinitely. This drew criticism from all.

But, it announced some restructuring Plan for its Business involving huge Capex on the part of the company and on the part of the Franchisees of Vakrangee kendras. 

This also involves re-working the ratio of sharing between the Franchisees and the company which will  alter the existing revenue sharing. Its effect on the revenues of Vakrangee is not known. We are unable to form any estimate or opinion on this restructuring and its effect on the company's revenues right now. 

Therefore, I am unable to form an opinion on how the company's profits will look like in Q1 and Q2 of this year.

In the mean time, the company's share price is relentlessly beaten down in the market to a low of 31.

At this stage, can we form an opinion on the company's future?  

The basic business model is of course intact and sound. The restructuring may possibly reduce the  company's revenues to some extent. We don’t really know this and have to wait to see this. But, the brand image of Vakrangee at ground level may improve a lot, which was also one aspect of criticism on whether so many kendras really exist. That criticism will go.

If so much capex is expected of the Franchisee, Proliferation of Kendras may not happen at the speed Vakrangee wants. Some slow down may happen. 

But, India is very Big. 72,000 Kendras is a small number. It might well happen. 

Vakragee seems to have taken RBI's approval for some 10,000 White ATMs or something but condition is, some of them must be in rural areas. Whether it will be profitable in rural areas remains to be seen. 

All in all, Vakrangee is improving its Business image and brand image on one side, but is moving into a slightly uncharted territory. If this Business plan succeeds as good as the earlier business plan, Vakrangee can build far larger number of kendras all over India. 

Even with a slightly reduced revenue share, Vakrangee can still succeed well. 

Current price of Vakrangee is at around Rs.60, which is ridiculously LOW. So, what is its correct level?  In my view, it can't be less than Rs.150. But, it is the Q1 results that can firmly tell us what level it deserves. It also needs clear Management commentary through Media and along with results on what it expects about the future. 

Will it declare results quickly? Will it declare reasonably good results, even if slightly less than earlier due to restructuring and due to the fixing of new revenue sharing formulas. Vakrangee should build up its investor confidence levels now through all these and by clearly telling us what it expects from future through its current initiatives. 

All market uncertainties will be laid to rest when results get announced. Rs.60 levels are too low for a company which had reached over Rs.500 too. Everybody expects quick results and clear Management commentary about the future. 

All said, I firmly believe that the company still has a bright future. India is too big and the company’s business model cannot fail in India. The scope for expansion of Vakrangee is almost infinite.

RESULTS CALENDER - FIRST QUARTER 2018-19 - AS ON 04.07.2018

RESULTS CALENDER

FIRST QUARTER 2018-19


Companies are declaring their Board Meeting dates for declaration of results for the first quarter ended 30th,June,2018.

Here are the dates so far declared. The list will be updated from time to time.



company Purpose BoardMeetingDate
SEL Manufacturing  Co   Financial Results 5-Jul-18
GM Breweries   Financial Results 5-Jul-18
Uttam Galva Steels   Financial Results 9-Jul-18
Dish TV India   Financial Results 9-Jul-18
IndusInd Bank   Financial Results 10-Jul-18
Prakash Industries   Financial Results 10-Jul-18
MIC Electronics   Financial Results 11-Jul-18
Reliance Industrial Infrastructure   Financial Results 11-Jul-18
Cyient   Financial Results 12-Jul-18
The Karnataka Bank   Financial Results 12-Jul-18
Infosys   Financial Results 13-Jul-18
3i Infotech   Financial Results 13-Jul-18
Opto Circuits (India)   Financial Results 16-Jul-18
Hindustan Unilever   Financial Results 16-Jul-18
Hindustan Media Ventures   Financial Results 17-Jul-18
Indian Metals & Ferro Alloys   Financial Results 17-Jul-18
Tata Sponge Iron   Financial Results 17-Jul-18
Ashok Leyland   Financial Results 17-Jul-18
8K Miles Software Services   Financial Results 17-Jul-18
ICICI Lombard General Insurance  Co   Financial Results 17-Jul-18
MindTree   Financial Results 18-Jul-18
JM Financial   Financial Results 18-Jul-18
GHCL   Financial Results 18-Jul-18
GHCL   Financial Results 18-Jul-18
Mahindra CIE Automotive   Financial Results 18-Jul-18
HT Media   Financial Results 18-Jul-18
Mahindra CIE Automotive   Financial Results 18-Jul-18
Bandhan Bank   Financial Results 18-Jul-18
Aditya Birla Money   Financial Results 19-Jul-18
Kotak Mahindra Bank   Financial Results 19-Jul-18
RBL Bank   Financial Results 19-Jul-18
Bajaj Finserv   Financial Results 19-Jul-18
Bajaj Finance   Financial Results 19-Jul-18
Wipro   Financial Results 20-Jul-18
Bajaj Holdings & Investment   Financial Results 20-Jul-18
Bajaj Auto   Financial Results 20-Jul-18
HDFC Standard Life Insurance  Co   Financial Results 20-Jul-18
Atul   Financial Results 20-Jul-18
Kansai Nerolac Paints   Financial Results 20-Jul-18
Bata India   Financial Results 20-Jul-18
HDFC Bank   Financial Results 21-Jul-18
Larsen & Toubro Infotech   Financial Results 23-Jul-18
Rane Engine Valve   Financial Results 23-Jul-18
Rane Engine Valve   Financial Results 23-Jul-18
Lakshmi Machine Works   Financial Results 23-Jul-18
Rane Brake Lining   Financial Results 24-Jul-18
Info Edge (India)   Financial Results 24-Jul-18
Rane Brake Lining   Financial Results 24-Jul-18
GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals   Financial Results 24-Jul-18
Chambal Fertilizers & Chemicals   Financial Results 24-Jul-18
Navin Fluorine International   Financial Results 24-Jul-18
Automotive Stampings and Assemblies   Financial Results 25-Jul-18
Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals   Financial Results 25-Jul-18
Hero MotoCorp   Financial Results 25-Jul-18
Gruh Finance   Financial Results 25-Jul-18
Everest Industries   Financial Results 25-Jul-18
Ponni Sugars (Erode)   Financial Results 25-Jul-18
Gangotri Textiles   Financial Results 25-Jul-18
NOCIL   Financial Results 25-Jul-18
Bharat Financial Inclusion   Financial Results 26-Jul-18
WABCO India   Financial Results 26-Jul-18
Dr. Reddy's Laboratories   Financial Results 26-Jul-18
Agro Tech Foods   Financial Results 26-Jul-18
Colgate Palmolive (India)   Financial Results 26-Jul-18
Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services   Financial Results 27-Jul-18
SHREE CEMENT   Financial Results 30-Jul-18
Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals   Financial Results 31-Jul-18
TI Financial Holdings   Financial Results 31-Jul-18
Dabur India   Financial Results 31-Jul-18
Indoco Remedies   Financial Results 1-Aug-18
TCI Developers   Financial Results 1-Aug-18
Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail   Financial Results 1-Aug-18
TCI Express   Financial Results 1-Aug-18
International Paper APPM   Financial Results 2-Aug-18
Transport  Corp of India   Financial Results 2-Aug-18
Rane Holdings   Financial Results 2-Aug-18
Rane Holdings   Financial Results 2-Aug-18
PI Industries   Financial Results 5-Aug-18
POLARIS CONSULTING & SERVICES   Financial Results 6-Aug-18
Vesuvius India   Financial Results 6-Aug-18
Prism Johnson   Financial Results 7-Aug-18
Dr. Lal Path Labs Ltd. Financial Results ########
Timken India   Financial Results ########
Tata Consultancy Services   Financial Results/Dividend 10-Jul-18
Hexaware Technologies   Financial Results/Dividend 24-Jul-18
Godrej Consumer Products   Financial Results/Dividend 30-Jul-18
Talwalkars Lifestyles   Financial Results/Dividend/Other business matters 12-Jul-18
Cholamandalam Investment and Finance  Co   Financial Results/Fund Raising 26-Jul-18
California Software  Co   Financial Results/Other business matters 13-Jul-18
Sasken Technologies   Financial Results/Other business matters 18-Jul-18
Syngene International   Financial Results/Other business matters 25-Jul-18
Jayant Agro Organics   Financial Results/Other business matters 28-Jul-18
Housing Development Finance  Corp   Financial Results/Other business matters 30-Jul-18
Mahindra Lifespace Developers   Financial Results/Other business matters 30-Jul-18
Housing Development Finance  Corp   Financial Results/Other business matters 30-Jul-18
GIC Housing Finance   Financial Results/Other business matters 2-Aug-18
Sudarshan Chemical Industries   Financial Results/Other business matters 9-Aug-18