Monday, July 9, 2018

GM BREWERIES LTD - Q1 FY 2018-19 RESULTS

GM BREWERIES LTD

Q1 FY 2018-19 RESULTS


The results of GM Breweries for the first quarter of 2018-19 are tabulated below :


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GM BREW
Jun '18 Mar '18 Dec '17 Sep '17 Jun '17 YOY QOQ
Net Sales 110.39 112.21 117.9 101.27 94.5 16.81 -1.62
Other Operating Income -- 0.12 -- -- 1.41

Total Income  110.39 112.33 117.9 101.27 95.91 15.1 -1.73
Raw Materials 66.58 68.47 74.87 67.76 70.52 -5.59 -2.76
Increase in Stocks 0.74 0.05 0.73 -0.96 -0.26 -384.62 1380
Employees Cost 1.76 4.18 2.14 1.85 1.73 1.73 -57.89
Depreciation 1.5 2.16 1.28 1.27 1.28 17.19 -30.56
Other Expenses 7.46 6.37 6.07 7.75 7.02 6.27 17.11
P/B Other Inc. , Int., Excpt. Items & Tax 32.35 31.1 32.81 23.6 15.62 107.11 4.02
Other Income 1.02 6.43 1.3 0.46 --
-84.14
P/L Before Int., Excpt. Items & Tax 33.37 37.53 34.11 24.06 15.62 113.64 -11.08
Interest 0.03 -- -- 0.01 0.02 50
P/L Before Exceptional Items & Tax 33.34 37.53 34.11 24.05 15.6 113.72 -11.16
P B T 33.34 37.53 34.11 24.05 15.6 113.72 -11.16
Tax 11.15 12.86 11.81 8.32 5.4 106.48 -13.3
Net Profit 22.19 24.67 22.3 15.73 10.2 117.55 -10.05
Equity  14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 0 0
Basic EPS 12.14 16.87 15.25 10.76 6.98 73.93 -28.04
Diluted EPS 12.14 16.87 15.25 10.76 6.98 73.93 -28.04
MP 820





PE 16.88





VOLUME 95211





PRICE TREND






09.07.18 1 week 2 week 1 month 3 month 6 month 9 month 1 year
Price 908.85 920.1 800 863.28 876 427.2 374.28
Gain / Loss -9.77% -10.87% 2.51% -5% -6.38% 91.97% 119.11%

While YoY results indicate good progress, QoQ results indicate no progress at all.

Saturday, July 7, 2018

GENUS PAPER AND BOARDS - RESULTS FOR Q4 - FY 18 PRESENTATION

GENUS PAPER AND BOARDS
RESULTS FOR Q4 FY 18 PRESENTATION

GENUS PAPER AND BOARDS  (1) is engaged in the manufacture of Kraft Paper,(2) is the preferred supplier to corrugated Box manufacturers (3)  is Reusing and Redefining waste Paper (4) is the preferred Vendor for Large FMCG Clients.

It  was incorporated in 1996 as DSM Papers Limited, then in 2002, name was changed as Kailash Paper Products Limited , in 2006, Name was changed to Genus Paper Products Limited and finally, in 2013, Genus Paper and Products Limited was formed.

In 2015, capacity was enhanced from 1,00,000 to 1,40,000 MTPA. In 2018, Company leased Manufacturing plant in Kashipur with a capacity of 75,000 MTPA.

MANAGEMENT

Mr.Kailash Chandra Agarwal is the MD,
Mr.Sanjay Agarwal is the Chief Financial Officer.

PRODUCTS :

1.KRAFT PAPER –catering to Diversified Industry needs
2. Mild steel Ingor – less than 5% of total Business

MANUFACTURING FACILITIES :

owned 1,40,000 MTPA at Moradabad in UP + leased 75000 MTPA at Khasipur in Uttarakhand = Total 2,15,000 MTPA

A Brownfield expansion of 50000 MTPA is planned at Moradabad UP.

PLANNED EXPANSIONS :

Genus has entered into Non-Binding MOUs as follows :

1. With Government of Maharashtra : Rs 1,050 cr for Setting up a Kraft Paper Manufacturing Plant;

2.  Government of Uttar Pradesh : Rs 600 cr for Expansion of current Manufacturing facility

Waste paper is available in abundance from internal as well as International sources. Likewise other raw material like Agro residue and wood is also available in abundance.

FUTURE DEMAND for Kraft Paper outpaces supply

There is strong presence of FMCG and consumer durable goods companies in India

TECHNOLOGY ADVANTAGE

Among the few Manufacturer to have Triple wire Machine

Sweden machine to produce high quality finished paper by using low cost waste paper

Pulp Mill is equipped to process imported mixed waste

Forbes Marshall Steam & Condensate system for steam (power) saving and to improve efficiency of Drying Cylinder

Plant is equipped with state of art Quality Control System

COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE

One of Largest Capacities in Northern India

11 MW Co-generation Captive Power Plant

Licensed borewell for sufficient Water Supply for our requirement

Zero Liquid Discharge plant with full fledged waste water treatment plant

Strong Relation with Key FMCG Customers

Growth Drivers

Exponential Growth in Demand
Shift to Value Added Products
Location Advantage
Recycle and Reuse of waste Paper

OPPORTUNITY FOR PAPER INDUSTRY

Domestic Demand for Paper is expected to grow at a strong pace

Packaging paper and Kraft paper to outpace the Industry with a CAGR of 8.8% and 9% respectively.

Right now, per capita consumption of paper in India is very low at 13 kg compared to 229 kg in USA and 74 KG in China and 57 KG for world as a whole.

Waste paper is 53% imports and 47% indigenous sources at present.

90% demand for Kraft paper is from corrugated Box Manufacturers

Genus is still looking for other organic and inorganic means of expansion

PRIORITY TO END CUSTOMER IS KEY

Corrugated Box Manufacturing industry is estimated at
 Rs 18,000 crore of which 35% is located at North India

Of all Kraft paper Mills in North India, only 5% have capacities more than 100,000 TPA to cater to demand of large FMCG companies

Genus Paper & Board Ltd has capacity of 215,000 MTPA.

Our quality products approved by all maior FMCG Clients
Incremental capacity of leased facility already has demand visibility in Place

There is a concentrated presence of FMCG companies in the northern belt of India

WAY FORWARD

Add new capacities via organic and inorganic modes

Higher sales of Kraft Paper with Bursting factor BF greater than 22

focused towards increasing asset productivity, operating efficiencies and strengthening the competitive position
 increased product offering of better quality to customers
Better Realization
improved operating efficiencies
Genus is ZERO DISCHARGE, environment friendly producer.
Present Utilization of capacity is at around 75%

FINANCIALS

Revenue was Rs.247 Cr in FY 14 and gradually improving to Rs.346 cr in FY 18.
EBITDA increased from Rs.19 cr to Rs.36 cr.
PAT increased from 10 Cr to 15 Cr.
Cash PAT increased from 18 cr to 28 Cr.

But Profit Margin is very low. Fro Es.100 cr sales, the net profit is hardly Rs.3.62 Cr. Equity is high at Rs.25.71 cr. Therefore EPS is hardly 0.14.Therefore, dividend prospects are very bleak. To achieve Rs.10 EPS, the company has to make a profit of Rs.25.71 cr against the current Rs.3.62 Cr.

GENUS PAPER
Mar '18
Dec '17
Sep '17
Jun '17
Mar '17
YOY
QOQ
Net Sales
100
89
83
73
76
32.21
11.96
Net Profit
3.62
4.8
4.13
2.38
2.69
34.57
-24.58
Equity
25.71
25.71
25.71
25.71
25.71
0
0
Basic EPS
0.14
0.19
0.16
0.07
0.1
40
-26.32
Diluted EPS
0.14
0.19
0.16
0.07
0.1
40
-26.32
MP
11






PE
19.64






VOLUME
74739






PRICE TREND






GENUS PAPER
1 week
2 week
1 month
3 month
6 month
9 month
1 year
Price
10.85
11.2
10.84
12.75
12.16
5.45
5.09
Gain / Loss
5.07%
1.79%
5.17%
-10.59%
-6.25%
109.17%
123.97%


PAPER INDUSTRY - REVIEW - 5 TOP PAPER COs ANALYSED



PAPER INDUSTRY REVIEW

There are many companies in the Paper Industry in India. Notable amongst them are : NR Agarwal, West Coast Paper, Star Paper, Seshasayee Paper, Ruchira Papers, Shreyans Ind, JK Paper, Intl Paper APPM, Pudumjee Paper , Genus Paper.

From this list, now, I first omit those Companies which are making losses. We will not consider them. We will now calculate the margin of profits to sales (per Rs.100)– and shortlist - NR Agarwal (18.07%); West Coast Paper (13.05), Star Paper (12.83); Seshasayee paper (11.12); and Ruchira papers (10.97)

Those with profit margins below 10% I am omitting from our consideration

We will examine each of these 5 now on some crucial parameters :

N.R AGARWAL : FV RS.10 :

Net Sales
345.45
315.17
276.62
276.53
282.29
Net Profit
24.4
25.85
18.58
21.42
24.06
Diluted EPS
14.33
15.19
10.92
12.58
14.13

MP IS 388 AND PE IS 6.77

PRICE TREND INDICATES A FALL OF PRICE BY 21% IN LAST 6 MONTHS, BUT GAIN BY 37% IN ONE YEAR

WEST COAST PAPERS : FV Rs.2

Net Sales
493.57
408.58
421.53
386.52
473.3
Net Profit
78.78
42.95
47.79
53.71
50.72
Diluted EPS
11.93
6.5
7.23
8.13
7.68
MP
257

PE
5.38









PRICE TREND INDICATES THAT PRICE HAS GONE UP BY 32% IN LAST ONE YEAR.


STAR PAPER :FV : RS.10

Net Sales
93.98
87.07
81.3
88.93
83.23
Net Profit
14.01
12.06
14.68
13.52
18.33
Diluted EPS
8.98
7.72
9.4
8.66
11.74

MP is 160 and PE comes to 4.45

Price trend during last one year indicates that price has comedown consistently by 22%


SESHASAYEE PAPERS : Rs.10

Net Sales
347.9
294.82
227.28
238.64
320.15

Diluted EPS
34.85
24.51
20.82
17.22
31.34

Net Profit
43.96
30.92
26.26
21.75
39.54









MP
874





PE
6.27




















PRICE TREND INDICATES A 14% RISE IN ONE YEAR



RUCHIRA PAPERS : FV RS.10

Net Sales
107.33
117.54
104.02
118.7
114.75
Net Profit
5.92
11.89
8.39
11.81
9.26
Diluted EPS
2.66
5.23
3.7
5.25
4.13







MP
110

PE
10.34














Price trend during last one year indicates that price has consistently come down by 30% in last one year

1.  Note : readers can also visit my YouTube videos section and listen to all of my videos. Click on this link for the Paper Industry review :    https://youtu.be/TUEprJMRB8A