Thursday, November 27, 2014

RATE CUT ENIGMA - WHAT WILL RBI DO THIS TIME? - IS THERE REALLY AN INVERSE RELATION BETWEEN INFLATION & RATES?



RATE CUT ENIGMA

Will there be a Rate Cut or will there not be? Will RBI respond positively this time to everyone’s wish?

This has been an Enigma for quite some time now. When rates were going up in last 3 years, there were no doubts in anybody’s mind. Inflation was going up. Therefore, rates must go up. This was and is an implicit assumption in everybody’s mind. These two are linked indelibly, inevitably – because the Economics Theory says so. When Inflation goes up, Rates must go up. But, if rates go up, will Inflation come down? Really? Did it ever happen? Have any of us seen this happening?

Well. I haven’t seen this happening. In fact, as rates went up, Inflation also went up further. Again, rates were pushed up further. Again, Inflation went up further. Again, Rates were pushed up further. This went on for almost 3-4 years in recent past. I haven’t witnessed even once, the inflation responding to Rates.

Yes. Inflation was seasonally coming down – when vegetable supplies increased. When crops cultivation went up. But, never did the Inflation respond to Rates.  

If at all there seemed to be some correlation between the two, Inflation always went up when Rates went up. It was a DIRECT RELATIONSHIP, not an inverse relationship. Why was this so – when economic theory says otherwise?

I was always wondering what on earth was happening because of the tussle between Rates and Inflation?

I strongly felt, that there was probably – probably, but not definitely -  a direct relationship between the two factors but definitely not an inverse relationship. If there was an inverse relationship, Inflation should have come down at some point when the Rates finally touched the ceiling. Ceiling, I say, because, at present levels, our Indian Rates seem to be at world No.1 Position. Is there any other developed or developing country, which has this High level of rates? I don’t think so.

If lending Rates are so High, they must definitely be High for fertilizer companies, seed suppliers,  Pest control suppliers, equipment suppliers, for Farmers, for Farm labourers and everybody down the line in agriculture, food and food related Industries. So, all input prices must be going up in the agriculture and food related activities. 

So, will food prices go up or down? They must go up. That, to me, seems absolute Logic! So, how will food Inflation come down when rates go up? No way, Unless 3 things happen due to extraneous factors.

(i)                Monsoons must be timely and sufficient; neither more nor less; nor untimely.
(ii)               The cultivated Acreage must go up significantly.
(iii)             Better food production techniques must be adopted.

Due to all these 3 factors, if Food production goes up significantly, and food supplies in the Market move closer to demand or move beyond that.

Food prices never went down until and unless these three things happened. They went up always, unmindful of what RBI was doing with its Rates. Like now, when Kerala is culling down all its chicken stock due to fears of Bird flu etc. Prices of chicken may go up , prices of eggs may go up , but demand for chicken may come down due to fears of Bird flu, but these are external factors to Rate Cuts. So, whatever RBI might or might not do with rates, it will have no impact on chicken and Egg prices.

If we look at Non-food Inflation, we all know that manufacturing has been coming down. Production is down. Capital assets building has slowed down very badly. Capital asset suppliers are experiencing slow down. We don't see any Primary market issues at all. 

Therefore, even future production capabilities are becoming suspect. Therefore, prices of non-food articles can only go up, if demand persists. Rate cut has no great influence on demand for products. It has deep influence only on production. But, production is getting depressed due to steep rates.

If Production is Higher, economies of scale will bring down prices of products. That is not happening because of higher lending rates. All that seems to be happening is – Cheap Chinese products are dominating all Indian markets, wiping out Indian production and Indian producers. Chinese lending Rates are LOW and Chinese are cutting the rates even further. So, their product prices are quite low and comparatively, Indian products are costlier. So Indian products are disappearing even from Indian Markets, leave alone getting exported.

I am not saying that lending rates are the only major criterion deciding final prices. Other prices such as labour wages and other input costs are also factors. But, Lending rates are one major enabling factor. In India, the lending Rates are very High.

Therefore, I strongly feel, our lending rates must come down to the levels of the Chinese. In my view, Inflation will not respond to it by going up. But, Growth will respond to it by going up. If RBI brings down rates – not by 0.25% but even by 2% - it will be healthy for both Inflation and for growth.

Will RBI oblige this time around? This is the million Dollar Question. In any case, I strongly feel that, there should be serious discussion on this Rates Vs Inflation Enigma. There should be fresh thinking on the subject. India can't afford to Grow at the current abysmal Rate, when the Potential to Grow is Huge.


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Tuesday, November 11, 2014

AJANTA PHARMA LTD - QUARTERLY RESULTS - Q2 FY 2015 (SEP-2014) - Revenue up 21% YoY; Net Profit Up 43% YoY




AJANTA PHARMA LTD

MANNALAL AGARWAL, CHAIRMAN

QUARTERLY RESULTS
Q2 FY 2015 (SEP-2014)

Highlights of Q2 FY '1 5 vis-a-vis Q2 FY '14
standalone financial performance

Ø Revenue from operations grew 21% at Rs. 337 Cr against Rs. 280 cr.
Ø EBITDA growth of 32% at Rs. 111 cr. against Rs. 84 cr.
Ø EBITDA at 33% of revenue.
Ø Profit before Tax at Rs. 113 cr. against Rs.79 cr., a growth of 43%.
Ø Profit after Tax grew 41% at Rs.79 cr. against Rs. 56 cr.
Ø PAT at 23% of revenue.
Ø Exports contributed 64% of the revenue for the quarter

RESULTS TABLE:

Ajanta Pharma
30-09-14
30-06-14
Dif% QoQ
31-03-14
31-12-13
30-09-13
Dif% YoY
Net Sales
33118.4
28079
17.95
30114
29259
27075
22.32
Total Expenditure
23874.62
20983
13.78
21539
21312
20466
16.66
Profit  before Interest, Dep. & Taxes
9243.78
7096
30.27
8575
7947
6609
39.87
Net Profit
7862.77
5872
33.9
7009
6242
5581
40.88
Diluted EPS
22.33
16.68
33.87
19.91
17.72
15.86
40.79
Total Income
33728.75
28749
17.32
31105
30085
27983
20.53
Changes in inventories
-1966.43
1248
-257.57
-3157
-469
2726
-172.14
Cost of materials
10342.4
5782
78.87
10586
8602
5716
80.94
stock-in-trade
1288.46
1001
28.72
1443
1014
851
51.41
Employee benefits
4450.44
4284
3.89
3767
3838
3735
19.16
Depreciation
1219.51
1204
1.29
1489
949
899
35.65
Other expenses
8540.24
7464
14.42
7411
7378
6539
30.6
Total expenses
23874.62
20983
13.78
21539
21312
20466
16.66
Profit before tax
11308.56
8493
33.15
9650
8958
7926
42.68
Tax Expenses
3445.79
2621
31.47
2641
2716
2345
46.94
Net Profit
7862.77
5872
33.9
7009
6242
5581
40.88
Face Value of Share (in )
5
5
0
5
5
5
0
Paid-up Equity
1767.63
1768
-0.02
1767
1767
1767
0.04
Reserves
51867.06
0

0
0
0

Basic EPS
22.35
16.7
33.83
19.94
17.75
15.88
40.74
Diluted EPS
22.33
16.68
33.87
19.91
17.72
15.86
40.79
Public holding (%)
26.17
26.45
-1.06
26.4
26.4
26.4
-0.87


Highlights 
 H1 FY'15 vis-a-vis H1 FY'!4

Ø Revenue from operations grew 25% at Rs. 625 cr. against Rs. 498 cr..
Ø EBITDA growth of 49% at Rs. 200 cr. against Rs. 135 cr.
Ø EBITDA at 32% of revenue
Ø Profit before Tax at Rs. 198 cr. against Rs. 127 cr., a growth of 56%.
Ø Profit after Tax grew 55% at Rs. 137 Cr against Rs. 88 cr.
Ø PAT at 22% of revenue.
Ø Exports contributed 61% of the total operating income for the half year

Commenting on the results, Mr.Yogesh Agrawal, Managing Director said "We are pleased to add yet another strong quarter in the current financial year. Our business performance remained aligned to our plans in all the markets that we operate in. Our consistent focus on High Quality business and improvement in efficiencies has led to higher margins. We are continuously making the required investments in infrastructure manufacturing facilities and R&D, anticipating tomorrow's requirements.”
 
YOGESH AGARWAL,MD

India Business : Accelerated Growth

For the 2nd quarter, overall India Business was Rs.115 cr., up 19% over Q2 last year. Out of this, Indian Pharmaceutical business was Rs.103 cr. posting healthy growth of 11%. Institution sales was Rs. 12 cr posting de-growth of 36% over previous year quarter. During the quarter, 6 new products were were launched, out-of-which 3 were first to market.

For the first half, sales was Rs. 234 cr., up by 21% over same period last year. Out of this, lndian Pharmaceutical Market (lPM) business was R.s. 211 cr. posting healthy growth of 34% as against the industry growth of 11%. Institution sales was Rs.23 cr., posting de-growth of 36% over previous year 1st  half. In the three major therapeutic segments where we operate, we have posted robust growth of 26% in Dermatology, 44% in Cardiology and 30% in Opthalmology (lMS MAT Sep '14)

Emerging Markets : Gaining Grounds

Emerging markets grew 24% during the quarter, with sales of Rs.216 cr. Africa contributed Rs.112 cr (growth of 22%), Asia Rs.101 cr. (growth of 32%) and Latin Rs.3 cr (de-growth of 47%).  During the quarter, company launched 12 new products in emerging markets.

In the first half, emerging markets grew 28% with sale of Rs.376 cr. Africa contributed Rs.204 cr. (growth of 30%, Asia Rs.166 cr. (growth of 30%) Latin America Rs.6 cr (de-growth of 30%).

Company continues to strengthen its brand presence in various emerging markets it operates in. Company has a pipeline of about 1700 products under registration paving the way for sustained growth in these markets.

Regulated Markets

company's re-launch of its first product gained momentum during the quarter. Company has 23 ANDAs under review with US FDA.

R&D

R&D expenses for the quarter were Rs.19 cr. (Rs.13 cr), while for the first Half, it were Rs.30 cr.(Rs.74 cr.). Ajanta continues to invest in its R&D infrastructure on continuous basis to meet the business requirements.

About Aianta Pharma

Ajanta Pharma – a specialty pharmaceutical formulation company has a well-established Branded generic business in India And emerging markets.

It has leading brands in therapeutic segments of ophthalmology, Dermatology, Cardiology and pain management in India.

In Emerging markets, company has customized product basket with wider therapeutics presence. Many Of company's products are first in  the market place and are leading in their sub therapeutic segments.
The company is now building a portfolio of ANDAs for the regulated markets of USA and has has recently entered this market with its maiden product.

Company's state of the art R&D centre for formulation development is located at Mumbai, having a team of 350+ people.

Company has world class manufacturing facilities – 4 located in India and 1 in Mauritius. One in India is approved by USFDA, UKMHRA, pre-qualification from WHO,  apart from having approval from FDAas of many other countries. Company is setting up two more manufacturing facilities in India , one for regulated markets and another for domestic / emerging markets.

For last 5 years, company has posted healthy performance with its consolidated revenue showing a CAGR of 31% and net profit of
62%.

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