Tuesday, October 30, 2012

RESERVE BANK OF INDIA - 2nd QUARTER 2012-13 REVIEW - NO RATE CUT YET AGAIN - DISAPPOINTMENT SHOWS - CRR cut welcome - but insufficient to fuel Growth



SECOND QUARTER REVIEW OF 

Monetary Policy 2012-13 OF RBI


Here is a summary of the RBI ‘s second quarter review of Monetary Policy for 2012-13, released today. Stock Market has reacted sharply to the announcement. SENSEX is down by 2o5 points and NIFTY by 68 points. Banking stocks are especially down - but many other stocks are also down.This was predictable. However, Banks are unlikely to be affected much - as they will maintain their margins. The point of concern for the country is that - Credit Demand for capital asset formation will continue to remain muted. Most Banks are therefore concentrating on retail loans, since there is not much demand for production purposes. This is not good for the economic Growth of the country in the long term.

Government also seems disappointed with the Policy.

"Growth is as much a challenge as inflation. If government has to walk alone to face the challenge of growth then we will walk alone," said the Finance Minister after the monetary policy.

Deputy chairman of planning commission Montek Singh Ahluwalia also seems disappointed that the RBI did not cut rates. "We expected RBI to move to support growth revival," Ahluwalia said. 

This blog also had advocated earlier for a RATE CUT at this point of time. The rationale for continuing the HIGH RATE policy does not seem valid, when Growth is of much greater importance. Especially so, when the High Rates have been in existence for such long time, without any effect on Inflation. Government has taken some of the steps indicated by RBI and is moving further in that direction.  Therefore, it would have been a welcome measure if RBI had made at least a token RATE CUT immediately

 This writer feels that if Growth starts happening, Inflation too, will come down - not the other way. While CRR cut is welcome, RATE-CUT is more urgent  as a policy measure. One hopes that RBI will consider this too - quickly.

Now, the Summary of RBI Announcement :

RBI DECISIONS :

Ø  Cut cash reserve ratio (CRR) of scheduled banks by 25 basis points from 4.5 % to 4.25 % of their net demand and time liabilities (NDTL) effective the fortnight beginning November 3, 2012.
Ø  The reduction in CRR, will inject around Rs.175 billion of primary liquidity into the banking system.
Ø  There is no change in policy interest rate. Accordingly, the repo rate under liquidity adjustment facility remains at 8.0 %.
Ø  Consequently, reverse repo rate under liquidity adjustment facility (LAF), determined with a spread of 100 basis points below the repo rate, will continue at 7.0 %, and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate, determined with a spread of 100 bps above the repo rate, at 9.0 %.

Considerations Behind the Policy Move

The decision to cut the CRR and keep the policy interest rate unchanged draws from RBI’s assessment of the evolving liquidity situation and the growth-inflation dynamic.

First on liquidity. Systemic liquidity deficit has been high because of several factors: the wedge between deposit and credit growth, the build-up of Government’s cash balances from mid-September and the drainage of liquidity on account of festival-related step-up in currency demand. This high systemic deficit will have adverse implications for the flow of credit to productive sectors and for the overall growth of the economy going forward.

As regards the growth-inflation balance, headline WPI inflation moderated from its peak of 10.9 % in April 2010 to an average rate of 7.5 % over the period January-August 2012. During this time, growth has slowed and is currently below trend. This slowdown is due to a host of factors, including monetary tightening.

Since April 2012, RBI’s monetary policy stance has sought to balance growth–inflation dynamic through calibrated easing. Transmission of these policy impulses through the economy is still underway. In conjunction with the fiscal and other measures recently announced by Government, RBI’s monetary policy stance should work towards arresting the loss of growth momentum over the next few months. Yesterday’s statement by the Finance Minister reaffirming commitment to fiscal consolidation will open up space for monetary policy to restrain inflation and support growth.

Now coming to inflation. It turned up again in September, reflecting the partial pass-through of adjustment of diesel and electricity prices, and elevated inflation in non-food manufactured products. It is, therefore, critical that even as the monetary policy stance shifts further towards addressing growth risks, the objective of containing inflation and anchoring inflation expectations is not de-emphasized.

Monetary Policy Stance

The policy document spells out three broad contours of our monetary policy stance. These are:
First, to manage liquidity to ensure adequate flow of credit to the productive sectors of the economy;
second, to reinforce the positive impact of government policy actions on growth as inflation risks moderate; and
third, to maintain an interest rate environment to contain inflation and anchor inflation expectations.

Guidance

In reducing CRR, RBI intended to pre-empt a prospective tightening of liquidity conditions, thereby keeping liquidity comfortable and supportive of growth. The policy stance anticipates the projected inflation trajectory which indicates a rise in inflation over the next few months before easing in the last quarter. While there are risks to this trajectory, the baseline scenario suggests a reasonable likelihood of further policy easing in the fourth quarter of this fiscal year. This guidance will, however, be conditioned by the evolving growth-inflation dynamic.

Expected Outcomes

 RBI expects that today’s policy actions, and the guidance that it has given, will result in the following three outcomes:
first, liquidity conditions will facilitate a turnaround in credit growth to productive sectors so as to support growth;
second, as inflation risks moderate, the growth stimulus of the policy actions announced by the Government will be reinforced;
and, finally, the policy action will anchor medium-term inflation expectations on the basis of a credible commitment to low and stable inflation.

Indian Economy

Growth decelerated over four successive quarters, from 9.2 % year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2010-11 to 5.3 % in the fourth quarter of 2011-12. In the first quarter of this year, growth was marginally higher at 5.5 %. This slight improvement in GDP growth in the first quarter was mainly driven by growth in construction, and supported by better than expected growth in agriculture. On the demand side, the growth of gross fixed capital formation decelerated, while the slowdown in growth of private consumption expenditure continued. The external demand conditions and crude oil prices also remained unfavourable, adversely impacting net exports.

Over the last quarter, global risks have increased and domestic risks have become accentuated owing to halted investment demand, moderation in consumption spending and continuing erosion in export competitiveness accompanied by weakening business and consumer confidence. The industrial outlook remains uncertain. Notwithstanding the improvement in rainfall in the months of August and September, the first advance estimates of the 2012 kharif production are about 10 % lower than last year’s production.

On the basis of the above considerations, the baseline projection of GDP growth for 2012-13 is revised downwards from 6.5 % to 5.8 %.

Inflation

Moving on to inflation. Headline WPI inflation remained sticky, at above 7.5 % on a y-o-y basis, through the first half of the current year. Furthermore, in September there was a pick-up in the momentum of headline inflation owing to the increase in fuel prices and elevated price levels of non-food manufactured products. This is, in part, attributable to some suppressed inflation in the form of earlier under-pricing being corrected. However, even after adjusting for this, the momentum remains firm.

While WPI primary food articles moderated since July due to the softening of prices of vegetables, prices of cereal and protein items edged up. WPI food products inflation increased in September, mainly due to the firming up of the prices of sugar, edible oils and grain mill products.

Fuel group inflation registered a significant rise in September, reflecting the sharp increase in prices of electricity effected from June, the partial impact of the increase in prices of diesel in mid-September and significant increase in non-administered fuel prices on account of rising global crude prices.

Non-food manufactured products inflation was persistent at 5.6 % through July-September. This upside pressure was a result of firm prices of metal products and other inputs and intermediates, especially goods with high import content due to a depreciating rupee.

Consumer price inflation, as measured by the new CPI, remained elevated, reflecting the build-up of food price pressures. CPI inflation excluding food and fuel groups ebbed slightly during June-September, from double digits earlier.

Looking ahead, the path of inflation will be shaped by two sets of counteracting forces.

First, on the downside, slower growth and excess capacity in some sectors will help moderate core inflation. Stable, or in the best case scenario, declining commodity prices will reinforce this tendency. An appreciating rupee will also help to contain inflationary pressures by bringing down the rupee cost of imports, especially of commodities.

Balancing those downside forces are some on the upside. Persistent supply constraints may aggravate as demand revives, resulting in price pressures. Global financial instability could put downward pressure on the rupee and that will add to imported inflation. Also, the upsurge in both rural and urban wages will exert cost-push pressures on inflation.

Finally, as under-pricing in several products is corrected as part of the fiscal consolidation process, suppressed inflation is being brought into the open. This correction is necessary and important. Nevertheless, it will result in higher inflation readings.

Taking the above factors into consideration, the baseline projection for headline WPI inflation for March 2013 is raised to 7.5 % from 7.0 % indicated in July. Importantly, inflation is expected to rise somewhat in the third quarter before beginning to ease in the fourth quarter.
Monetary and Liquidity Conditions

Money supply (M3), deposit and credit growth have so far trailed below the indicative trajectories of RBI indicated in the April Policy and reiterated in the July Review. Deposit growth has decelerated with the moderation in interest rates, especially term deposits. Credit growth has ebbed with the slowdown in investment demand, especially with regard to infrastructure, and lower absorption of credit by industry, in general. Keeping in view the developments during the year so far and the usual year-end pick-up, the trajectories of the monetary aggregates for 2012-13 are projected at 14 % for M3, 15 % for deposit growth and 16 % for growth of non-food credit.

Liquidity conditions, as reflected in the average net borrowing under the LAF at Rs.486 billion during July-September, remained within the comfort zone of (+/-) one % of NDTL. However, liquidity conditions tightened in October, mainly on account of the build-up in the Government’s cash balances and the seasonal increase in currency demand, taking the average LAF borrowing to Rs.871 billion during October 15-25, well above the band of (+/-) one % of NDTL

Risk Factors

First, the downside risks to growth stemming from the global macroeconomic environment now seem likely to be stronger than earlier thought. Domestically, a revival in investment activity, which is key to stimulating growth, depends particularly on the recent policy announcements by the Government being translated into effective actions;

Second, despite recent moderation, global commodity prices remain high. Also, under recoveries in domestic prices of administered petroleum products persist and will need to be corrected. While corrections are welcome from the viewpoint of overall macroeconomic stability, we will have to guard against their second-round effects on inflation.

Third, the behaviour of food inflation will depend on the supply response in respect of commodities characterised by structural imbalances, particularly protein items;

Fourth, the persistent increase in rural and urban wages, unaccompanied by commensurate productivity increase, has been and will continue to be a source of inflationary pressures;

Fifth, the large twin deficits, i.e., the current account deficit and the fiscal deficit pose significant risks to both growth and macroeconomic stability; and

Finally, while liquidity pressures pose risks to credit availability for productive purposes and could adversely affect overall investment, excess liquidity could aggravate inflation risks.

The persistence of inflation pressures, even as growth has moderated, remains a key challenge. Of particular concern is the stickiness of core inflation, mainly on account of supply constraints and the cost-push of rupee depreciation. Consequently, managing inflation and inflation expectations must remain the primary focus of monetary policy. A central premise of monetary policy is that low and stable inflation and well-anchored inflation expectations contribute to a conducive investment climate and consumer confidence, which is key to sustained growth on a higher trajectory in the medium-term.

Accordingly, over the past few quarters, monetary policy had to focus on inflation, even as growth risks have increased. As recent policy initiatives by the Government start yielding results in terms of revitalising activity, they will open up space for monetary policy to work in concert to stimulate growth. However, in doing so, it is important not to lose sight of the primary objective of managing inflation and inflation expectations.


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COLGATE – PALMOLIVE (INDIA) Ltd - RESULTS FOR - Q2 FY 2013 - SEP 2012 - net sales up 18%;net profit up 46% YoY; EPS Rs.10.67 -very good performance - Industry competitive - but, future promising


COLGATE – PALMOLIVE (INDIA) LIMITED

RESULTS FOR Q2 FY 2013
SEP 2012

Financial Highlights
H1 2012-13 : 
Net sales for the half year ended September 30, 2012 are Rs. 1,509.8 Crore, a 19% increase over the same period of the prior year.

Net Profit After Tax for the half year is Rs 262.5 Crore, an 31% increase over the same period of the previous year.
2Q 2012-13 :

Net sales of Rs. 773.8 Crore for the second quarter of the financial year 2012-13, a 18% increase over the same quarter of the previous year.

Net profit After Tax for the quarter is Rs. 145.1 Crore with Earnings per Share of Rs. 10.67 per share as against Rs. 7.33 per share for the same quarter of the previous year. It is a 45.55% increase YoY.
Driving Growth

During the period, the Company achieved a volume growth of 10% over the same period of the previous year. The toothpaste volume market share has increased to 54.3% (Jan’12 - Sept’12) as against 52.3% for the same period of the previous year with strong volume growth of 11% through its flagship brands “Colgate Dental Cream”, “Colgate Active Salt”, “Colgate Total” , “Colgate Max Fresh”. The Company has also registered a strong growth momentum in the toothbrush category with volume market share of 39.0% (Jan’12-Sept’12)

The Mouthwash category continues its growth momentum with market share at 26.8% (Jan’12 –Sept’12).
Innovation

The Company launched a new toothpaste variant – Colgate Total Advance Whitening that works like a protective shield around your teeth and gums. The Company also recently launched Colgate Max Fresh Ice toothpaste that is infused with dissolvable cooling crystals that will give you a whole new dimension of freshness.

These launches were coupled with the new launches in the toothbrush category in the first quarter of the year, namely Colgate 360 Battery Toothbrush that has a dual action brush head which provides 20X more cleaning action than a manual toothbrush.

The Company had also launched Colgate Max Fresh toothbrush that has specially designed multi-height bristles that penetrate between teeth to clean away plaque and an advanced tongue freshener with 3 waves of multi-dimensional cleaning.

Dividend

In September 2012, the Company declared and paid its first interim dividend of Rs. 13 per share.

About Colgate-Palmolive

Colgate-Palmolive (India) Limited is Indias leading provider of scientifically proven oral care products with multiple benefits at various price points. The range includes toothpastes, toothpowder, toothbrushes and mouthwashes under the “Colgate” brand, as well as a specialized range of dental therapies under the banner of Colgate Oral Pharmaceuticals. These have become an essential part of daily oral hygiene and therapeutic oral care in India. The Company also provides a range of personal care products under the ‘Palmolive’ brand name.

Colgate has been ranked as India’s #1 Most Trusted Brand across all categories for four consecutive years from 2003 to 2007 and in 2011 by Brand Equity’s Most Trusted Brand Survey. It is the only brand to be in the top three from 2001-2011. Prior to this, Colgate was also rated as the #1 brand by the A&M – MODE Annual Survey for India’s Top Brands for eight out of nine years during the period 1992 to 2001.
 

QUARTERLY RESULTS TABLE
(Rs.In Lakhs)


COLGATE
QE SEP12
QE JUN12
%DIF QoQ
QE SEP11
%DIF YoY
Income from Operations
Net Sales
77,377
73,608
5
65724
17.73
Other Operating Income
1,865
2,001
-7
1,718
8.56
Total Income
79,242
75,609
5
67442
17.5
Expenses
Material Cost
25,789
22,609
14
22401
15.12
Purchase of SIT
5,665
5,730
-1
5,517
2.68
Change in Inv.of FG,WIP&
stock-in-trade
929
1,633
-43
-1,551
-159.9
Employee Exp
5,430
6,242
-13
6,054
-10.31
Depreciation
1,060
1,051
1
1,057
0.28
Advertising
8,892
8,372
6
7,228
23.02
Other Exp
14,959
14,778
1
14869
0.61
Total Exp
62,724
60,415
4
55575
12.86
ProfitFrom Operations
16,518
15,194
9
11867
39.19
Other Income
1,487
1,122
33
1,082
37.43
ProfitBef.Fin.Costs
18,005
16,316
10
12949
39.05
FinanceCosts
55
-100
Profit Bef.Tax
18,005
16,316
10
12894
39.64
Tax Exp
3,497
4,574
-24
2,926
19.51
Net Profit
14,508
11,742
24
9,968
45.55
Paid-up Equity
1,360
1,360
0
1,360
0
Face value:
Rs.1/sh
Reserves
E P S
10.67
8.63
24
7.33
45.57

HALF YEARLY TABLE
(Rs.In Lakhs)

COLGATE
HYE SEP12
HYE SEP11
%DIF
FY 12

Income from Operations
Net Sales
150,985
126,834
19
262,385
Other Operating Income
3,866
3,382
14
6,938
Total Income
154,851
130,216
19
269,323
Expenses
Material Cost
48,398
43179
12
89,387
Purchase of SIT
11395
9,266
23
19970
Change in Inv.of FG,WIP&
stock-in-trade
2,562
-1,411
-282
-4,334
Employee Exp
11672
11,037
6
21561
Depreciation
2,111
1,937
9
3,931
Advertising
17264
13,569
27
26296
Other Exp
29,737
28300
5
58,591
Total Exp
123,139
105,877
16
215,402
ProfitFrom Operations
31,712
24339
30
53,921
Other Income
2,609
2,465
6
5,069
ProfitBef.Fin.Costs
34,321
26,804
28
58990
Profit Bef.Tax
34,321
26707
29
58,839
Tax Exp
8,071
6,695
21
14192
Net Profit
26,250
20012
31
44647
Paid-up Equity
1,360
1,360
0
1,360
Face value:
Reserves
42,179
E P S
19.3
14.71
31
32.83

Notes

Net Sales for the quarter and half year ended September 30, 2012 increased by 18% and 19%, respectively, over the same period of the previous year.

Net Profit after Tax for the quarter and half year ended September 30, 2012 increased to Rs. 14,508 Lacs (Up 46%) and Rs. 26,250 Lacs (Up 31%), respectively, from Rs. 9,968 Lacs and Rs. 20,012 Lacs for similar periods of the previous year.

The Company declared a First Interim Dividend of Rs. 17,679 Lacs (Rs. 13 per share) on September 24, 2012, which was paid on October 19, 2012.


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