Tuesday, February 22, 2011

INVESTMENT STRATEGY FOR FY 12 = HOW DID NIFTY SCRIPS FARE IN LAST 1 YEAR = WHERE TO INVEST NOW?



HOW DID NIFTY 50 SCRIPS FARE IN
LAST 365 DAYS

The Table below gives brief details of How the NIFTY SCRIPS fared in the Last 365 days.

Overall, NIFTY    is at the level of 5,518.60 on 21,Feb,2011. But, it had reached a High of      6,338.50 and a LOW OF 4,786.45 in the last 52 weeks. The percentage change in the last 365 days was (+)12.91%. In the last 30 days, however, NIFTY has declined by 3.03%.

NSE statistics dated 21st,Feb,2011 are analyzed below for the NIFTY SCRIPS.

31 SCRIPS WHICH HAVE MOVED UP  IN LAST 365 DAYS :
1. TATA MOTORS has moved up the maximum by as much as 63.64 % .The decline in last 30 days is 2.61%. Its European operations have decisively turned to a Fast Forward mode. This has helped it to move from the 52 week low of Rs.661.35 to a 52 W- high of Rs.1382, and is now at Rs.1161.60.
2. TCS has moved  up by 49.82%. Decline in last 30 days is 4.71%. It continues to be No.1 in IT space, and by last results, it seems to have put much greater between itself and Infosys Tech, the No.2 in IT space. TCS has also moved up from its 52 W low of Rs.685.25 to its 52 W-high of Rs.1220 and is now at Rs.1136.80.It is consistently Bagging large customers.
3. BAJAJ-AUTO has moved up by 47.96%.Its current MP is Rs.1340.90, and its 52 w high was Rs.3070 and Low wasRs.1165.65. It has inched up by 1.44% in last 30 days also.
4. SBIN has moved up by 43.51%, to remain as the Giant in the banking space. Unlike most other scrips which have actually declined in the last 30 ‘dull’days, SBIN has moved up even in these days by a huge 11.42%. In 52 weeks, it had scored a high of Rs.Rs.3515 and a low of Rs.1900, and is now at Rs.2787.50
5. SUNPHARMA has moved up by 39.6% in 365 days. From a 52 w-low of Rs.393.15, it had gone up to a High of Rs.2383.95, before again declining to Rs.431.4. In last 30 days, it had declined by 10.95%. Readers may kindly note that we are not analyzing here all the reasons for these volatile changes.
6. HINDALCO has moved up by 39.45% in last 365 days to current MP of Rs.212.8. Its 52 W-High was Rs.252.85 and Low was Rs.129.35. In last 30 days, decline was 9.68%.
7. DRREDDY : has gone up by 37.78% to current MP of Rs.1,538.00; while its 52 W High was Rs.1,854.00, and Low was Rs.1,105.00. In last 30 days, it has declined by 7.23%.
8. HDFC : has gone up by 30.61% to current MP of Rs.648.05; while its 52 W high was Rs.3,145.00 and Low was Rs.582.3. In last 30 days, it has declined marginally by 0.77%.
9. HDFCBANK       : is now at Rs.2,195.65 while its 365 days move up is 30.4%. Its 52 W high is Rs.2,539.90 and Low is Rs.1,628.85. Even in last 30 days, it has moved up by 5.79%.
10.            HCLTECH : currently at Rs.466 while its last 365 days move-up is 29.19%. Its 52 W high was Rs.517.15 and Low was Rs.340. In last 30 days, the move down was 8.28%.
11.            M&M : is currently at Rs.650.25, while its 52 W high was Rs.1,154.95 and Low was Rs.476.35. It had moved up by 28.36% in 365 days. Last month decline is 13.4%.
12.            ITC : is currently at Rs.158.45; while its 52 W high was Rs.313.45        and Low was Rs.151.55. It has appreciated by 27.65% in last 365 days. Its decline in last 30days was 9.69%.
13.            SIEMENS : is currently at Rs.844.55, but has its 52 W High at Rs.884.6 and Low at Rs.620.6. In 365 days, it has appreciated 24.68%. In last 30 days also, it has appreciated by a Huge 15.31%.
14.            INFOSYSTECH : is currently at Rs.3,157.00; while its 52 W High was Rs.3,499.00 and LOW was Rs.     2,510.10. In 365 days, its appreciation was 24.6%; In last 30 days, it has declined by 2.85%.
15.            ICICIBANK : is currently at Rs.1,038.95; Its 52 W High was Rs.1,279.00 and LOW was Rs.       712. In 365 days, it has appreciated 23.68%. In last 30 days also, it has appreciated 1.53%. 
16.            PNB  : is currently at Rs.1,090.00, while its 52 W High was Rs.1,399.90 and LOW was Rs.       850. In 365 days, it has appreciated by 21.65%. Its decline in last 30 days was 4.5%.
17.            AXISBANK : is current at Rs.1,309.00; while its 52 W High was Rs.1,608.50 and LOW was Rs.     1,045.00; In 365 days, it has appreciated by 19.16% and in last 30 days also, it has appreciated by 2.26%.
18.            AMBUJACEM : is currently at Rs.126.9; while its 52 W High was Rs.166.8 and Low was Rs.101.8. In 365 days, it has appreciated by 19.15%; Its decline in last 30 days was 0.35%.
19.            CAIRN : is currently at Rs.318.05; while its 52 W High was Rs.368.05        and LOW was Rs.253.4. It had appreciated 18.72% in 365 days. Its decline in last 30 days was 7.46%.
20.            BHARTIARTL : is currently at Rs.330; while its 52 W High was Rs.376.95 and LOW was Rs.252. It had appreciated by 17.06% in last 365 days, which is a tribute to its Management, considering the huge problems facing the Telecom Industry. In last 30 days, it has declined by 4.2%.
21.            RANBAXY : is currently at Rs.511.45; Its 52 W High was Rs.624.2 and LOW was Rs.403.15; In 365 days, its appreciation was 15.83%; Its 30 days decline was 10.8%.
22.            HINDUNILVR : is currently at Rs.280.55; while its 52 W High was Rs.329.9 and Low was Rs.218; Its 365 days appreciation is  15.69%; and its 30 days decline is 6.37%.
23.            WIPRO : is currently at Rs.453.6; while its 52 W High was Rs.750; and LOW Was Rs.372.1; In 365 days, it has appreciated by 13.19%; In last 30 days, it has declined by 4.73%.
24.            LT : is currently at Rs.1,658.00; while its 52 W High was Rs.2,212.70; and Low was Rs.        1,461.00; In last 365 days, it has appreciated by 12.31%; In last 30 days, it has appreciated by 0.39%.
25.            JINDALSTEL : is currently at Rs.690; Its 52 W high was Rs.796.1; and LOW was Rs.574.35. It has appreciated by 11.07% in last 365 days; In last 30 days, it has declined by 0.09%.
26.            GAIL        : is currently at Rs.448; Its 52 W High was Rs.537.75; and LOW was Rs.390.9. It has appreciated by 10.86% in last 365 days; Last 30 days decline was 4.08%.
27.            ACC  : is currently at Rs.1,005.65; Its 52 W High was Rs.1,134.40; and LOW was Rs.800; in 365 days, it has appreciated by 10.66%; Its 30 days decline was 0.81%.
28.            TATASTEEL : is currently at Rs.637.6; while its 52 W High was Rs.739 and LOW was Rs.       449.1; In last 365 days, it has appreciated by 10.47%. Its 30 days decline was 0.31%.
29.            KOTAKBANK : is currently at Rs.415; while its 52 W High was Rs.878 and Low was Rs.333. In 365 days, it has appreciated by 10.45%. Its last 30 days decline was 0.31%.
30.            ONGC : is currently at Rs.276.9; its 52 W High was Rs.1,472.60 and LOW was Rs.     264.05; In 365 days, it has appreciated marginally by 0.37%; Its last 30 days decline was 4.42%.
31.            TATAPOWER : is currently at Rs.1,257.00; while its 52 W High was Rs.1,468.40 and LOW was Rs.1,156.10. It has marginally appreciated by 0.32% in last 365 days; its last 30 days decline was 4.58%.

19 Scrips which have declined in last 365 days :-
i.             BPCL : is currently at Rs.587; its 52 W High was Rs.        840 and Low was Rs.488.4; In last 365 days, it has moved down by 0.71%; In last 30 days, it is up by 0.46%.
ii.           CIPLA   : is currently at Rs.305.55; Its 52 W High was Rs.381 and Low was Rs.296.3; In last 365 days, it has moved down by 3.92%; In last 30 days, it has moved down by a big 13.08%.
iii.         RELIANCE : is currently at Rs.954.65; while its 52 W High was Rs.1,149.70 and LOW was Rs.885.1; In last 365 days, it has moved down by 4.32%; Its last 30 days decline was 2.6%.
iv.         IDFC    : is currently at Rs.143.65; Its 52 W High was 218.25; and LOW was Rs.115.45; It has moved by 7.23% in last 365 days. Its last 30 days decline was 9.02%.
v.           POWERGRID        : is currently at Rs.99; Its 52 W High was Rs.120.5; and LOW was Rs. 91.8. In last 365 days, it has moved down by 8.46%; In last 30 days, it has moved up by 1.12%.
vi.         MARUTI : is currently at Rs.  1,209.50; while its 52 W High was Rs.1,585.00 and LOW was Rs.1,126.85; In last 365 days, it has moved down by 11.04%; Its last 30 days decline was 4.97%.
vii.        BHEL    : is currently at Rs.2,111.00; while its 52 W High was Rs.2,694.00; and LOW was Rs.1,998.10; In last 365 days, it has moved down by 11.06%; In last 30 days, it has moved down by 3.24%.
viii.      STER    : is currently Rs.166.1; its 52 W High was Rs.      889 and LOW was Rs.        149. It has declined in last 365 days by 13.78% ; and in last 30 days, it has declined by 8.81%.
ix.         NTPC : is currently at Rs.176.35; Its 52 W High was Rs.222.3; and LOW was Rs.        170; In last 365 days, it has declined by 14.02%; In last 30 days, it has declined by 5.77%.
x.           HEROHONDA : is currently at Rs.   1,433.00; while its 52 W High was Rs.2,094.00 and LOW was Rs.1,415.15; In last 365 days, it has moved down by 15.85%; In last 30 days, it has moved down by a Hefty 18.78%.
xi.         RPOWER : is currently at Rs.114.4; while its 52 W high was Rs.192.8 and LOW was Rs.106.45; In last 365 days, it has moved down by 19.18%; In last 30 days itself, it has moved down by a hefty 16.77%.
xii.        SESAGOA : is currently at Rs.309.7; while its 52 W High was Rs.495; and LOW was Rs.280.5. In lat 365 days, it has moved down by 19.33%; In last 30 days, it has moved down by 4.32%.
xiii.      DLF : is currently at Rs.230.9; while its 52 W High was Rs.397.5; and LOW was Rs. 214.35. In last 365 days, it has moved down by 23.97%; In last 30 days, it has declined by 10.16%.
xiv.      SAIL : is currently at Rs.160.5; while its 52 w High was Rs.258.45; and LOW was Rs.151.5; In last 365 days, it has declined by 24.74%; and in last 30 days, it has moved down by 5.45%.
xv.        SUZLON : is currently at Rs.47.3; its 52 W High was rs.82.7; and LOW was Rs.42.8; It has declined by 33.1% in last 365 days; and by 8.69% in last 30 days.
xvi.      JP ASSOCI : is currently at Rs.88.5; Its 52 W High was Rs.162.9 and LOW was Rs.70.05; It has declined by a Hefty 34.88% in last 365 days; Its last 30 days decline was 2.69%.
xvii.    RELINFRA : is currently at Rs.619; while its 52 W High was Rs.1,224.00; and LOW was Rs.492.05; in last 365 days, it has declined heavily by 39.74%; in last 30 days, it has declined by a huge 14.18%.
xviii.   RELCAPITAL : is currently at Rs.451.9 ; Its 52 W High was Rs.882.3; while its 52 W Low was Rs.     388.4; It has declined heavily by 39.94% in last 365 days; and by 22.27% in last 30 days.
xix.      RCOM   : is currently at Rs.93.6; while its 52 W High was Rs.207.8 and LOW was Rs.89.75. Is has declined the heaviest among all NIFTY SCRIPS by 44.15% in last 365 days; and by  a heavy 28.44% in last 30 days.

While the statistics are taken from NSE site mostly, and very carefully, readers are free to give their comments, suggestions, (and corrections etc notice by them), which will be gratefully accepted.

As can be  seen from the statistics, all of RELIANCE GROUP COMPANIES have declined. While RIL has declined marginally, ADAG companies have declined very heavily.

All BANKS have moved up well in the last year and not even one bank has declined. They are likely to score even Better in current Year, registering much better gains.

All TATA GROUP companies have appreciated well- specially TATA MOTORS and TCS which are the top 2 in the list. TATA STEEL is reasonable while TATA Power has appreciated just marginally.

All IT Companies have appreciated smartly, and are likely to fare better in  FY 12 too.

Pharma companies have appreciated well – except CIPLA. FY 12 could see even better performances from Pharma sector.

Many other companies can perform well in FY 12 – though their last 365 days performance was not good in terms of price; and in some case, in terms of operational performance too. These will be analyzed further in the next few articles.

STATISTICAL TABLE :

21,FEB 11
52 WEEKS
52 WEEKS
CH%
CH%
SYMBOL
LTP
HIGH
LOW
365 DAYS
30 DAYS
TATAMOTORS
1,161.60
1,382.00
661.35
63.64
-2.61
TCS
1,136.80
1,220.00
685.25
49.82
-4.71
BAJAJ-AUTO
1,340.90
3,070.00
1,165.65
47.96
1.44
SBIN
2,787.50
3,515.00
1,900.00
43.51
11.42
SUNPHARMA
431.4
2,383.95
393.15
39.6
-10.95
HINDALCO
212.8
252.85
129.35
39.45
-9.68
DRREDDY
1,538.00
1,854.00
1,105.00
37.78
-7.23
HDFC
648.05
3,145.00
582.3
30.61
-0.77
HDFCBANK
2,195.65
2,539.90
1,628.85
30.4
5.79
HCLTECH
466
517.15
340
29.19
-8.28
M&M
650.25
1,154.95
476.35
28.36
-13.4
ITC
158.45
313.45
151.55
27.65
-9.69
SIEMENS
844.55
884.6
620.6
24.68
15.31
INFOSYSTECH
3,157.00
3,499.00
2,510.10
24.6
-2.85
ICICIBANK
1,038.95
1,279.00
712
23.68
1.53
PNB
1,090.00
1,399.90
850
21.65
-4.5
AXISBANK
1,309.00
1,608.50
1,045.00
19.16
2.26
AMBUJACEM
126.9
166.8
101.8
19.15
-0.35
CAIRN
318.05
368.05
253.4
18.72
-7.46
BHARTIARTL
330
376.95
252
17.06
-4.2
RANBAXY
511.45
624.2
403.15
15.83
-10.8
HINDUNILVR
280.55
329.9
218
15.69
-6.37
WIPRO
453.6
750
372.1
13.19
-4.73
LT
1,658.00
2,212.70
1,461.00
12.31
0.39
JINDALSTEL
690
796.1
574.35
11.07
-0.09
GAIL
448
537.75
390.9
10.86
-4.08
ACC
1,005.65
1,134.40
800
10.66
-0.81
TATASTEEL
637.6
739
449.1
10.47
-0.31
KOTAKBANK
415
878
333
10.45
0.31
ONGC
276.9
1,472.60
264.05
0.37
-4.42
TATAPOWER
1,257.00
1,468.40
1,156.10
0.32
-4.58
BPCL
587
840
488.4
-0.71
0.46
CIPLA
305.55
381
296.3
-3.92
-13.08
RELIANCE
954.65
1,149.70
885.1
-4.32
-2.6
IDFC
143.65
218.25
115.45
-7.23
-9.02
POWERGRID
99
120.5
91.8
-8.46
1.12
MARUTI
1,209.50
1,585.00
1,126.85
-11.04
-4.97
BHEL
2,111.00
2,694.00
1,998.10
-11.06
-3.24
STER
166.1
889
149
-13.78
-8.81
NTPC
176.35
222.3
170
-14.02
-5.77
HEROHONDA
1,433.00
2,094.00
1,415.15
-15.85
-18.78
RPOWER
114.4
192.8
106.45
-19.18
-16.77
SESAGOA
309.7
495
280.5
-19.33
-4.32
DLF
230.9
397.5
214.35
-23.97
-10.16
SAIL
160.5
258.45
151.5
-24.74
-5.45
SUZLON
47.3
82.7
42.8
-33.1
-8.69
JP ASSOCI
88.5
162.9
70.05
-34.88
-2.69
RELINFRA
619
1,224.00
492.05
-39.74
-14.18
RELCAPITAL
451.9
882.3
388.4
-39.94
-22.27
RCOM
93.6
207.8
89.75
-44.15
-28.44
*  *  *  E  N  D   *  *  *






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