Tuesday, March 6, 2012


MARCH 2012

The Election Results for the five state Assemblies are out finally. Let us look at Some of the High lights , and what they imply for future. What happened, what did not happen, and what should have happened - all make interesting reading. read on :

1.   In Punjab, the voting % in 2007 was 75.36%. It has risen to 78.57% in March 2012. Men voters are 78.09% and women voters are 79.10%. The increase in voters is 1142416 in Nos and it is up by 8.96% over 2007.

2.   In Uttarakhand, the voting % in 2007 was 63.96%. It has risen to 67.22% in March 2012. Men voters are 65.74%% and women voters are 68.84%. The increase in voters is 381975 in Nos and it is up by 9.95% over 2007.

3.   In Manipur, the voting % in 2007 was 86.73%. It has FALLEN to 79.8%% in March 2012. Men voters are 57.82%% and women voters are 59.85%. The decrease in voters is 90860 in Nos and it is down by 6.14% over 2007.

4.   In Uttar Pradesh, the voting % in 2007 was 46.07%. It has risen to 59.48% in March 2012. Men voters are 58.82% and women voters are 60.29%. The increase in voters is 23967800  in Nos and it is up by 45.81% over 2007.

5.   In Goa, the voting % in 2007 was 70.51%. It has risen to 81.74% in March 2012. Men voters are 79.67% and women voters are 85.97%. The increase in voters is 125577in Nos and it is up by 17.63% over 2007.

6.   Total Voters in 2007 in these 5 states were 7,10,88,348, whereas, the total Electors  in March 2012 is 154013353; the total Voters in 2012 is 960575526; the increase in electors is 14827986; and the increase in Voters is 24969178

Thus, in all the five states, women voters outnumber men voters by an impressive percentage. Goa has more women voters% than Men voters%  compared to any other of the 4 states which went to Polls.

We are worried generally that women percentage in total population is coming down – but, their assertiveness is obviously going up.

In Goa, percentage of Voters in 2012 March - over 2007 is up by a good 17.63% this time.

But, Uttar Pradesh has the highest percentage increase of voters over 2007 –  up by a percentage  of 45.81%.

But, with this increased voters percentage (in March,2012) over 2007, the total voter percentage is still the LOWEST in UP among the 5 states with just 59.48%; whereas Uttarakhand had a voter turnout of 67.22%; Punjab had 78.57%; Manipur had 79.8% and Goa had the highest at 81.74%,

If UP had a Voter % in 2012  at least equal to Manipur i.e.,67.22% (up by around 8%) – would the results have been different?

Suppose, UP had a voter % of 78.57% like in Punjab, what would have been the shift in the result? Would it still have been the same?

More interestingly – VOTERS WHO DID NOT VOTE - CONSTITUTING ABOUT 40.52% (100-59.48%)  in this Election in UP - What are the implications of this Low Voter turnout?

40% of the State (a large state like UP)  not choosing to vote at all – for one or the other contesting candidates is obviously not a healthy sign for democracy.

By contrast, Punjab, Goa and Manipur have impressive voter turnouts. Even Uttarakhand is better but is not impressive as the other three states.

So, who exactly has not voted in UP, this time? Difficult to Guess. But, Guess we must. Usually, it is more likely to be the upper castes, or, the Middle and wealthy classes, or those, who feel, more dignified than they need to feel – these are more likely to be the people who talk more but  vote less.

I feel there should be data collection on this point by the likes of Yogendra Yadav who are experienced Predictors of Poll results. I may be wrong in my assumption - which is a wild guess. But, we all want to know – and I am sure, all readers would want to know - who did not Vote in UP and why?.

Suppose, the upper castes did not Vote – for any good or bad or no reason – or, because, they may not have seen any one worth voting for, as a winning candidate  – it is just a hypothesis – and if they had voted, whom would they have voted for, and how the result would have tilted in that case?

This guess work can be repeated for all those classes who failed to vote in large numbers – if we have some reliable data on this.

If Elections should really reflect People’s will –India must find ways to make this absentee voters also to vote definitely. A voter turnover less than 80% is not really good for Democracy

Now, with 59% of total voters exercising their vote – and four Major Parties in the Fray – and the winning margins being thin - and with most candidates not losing deposits – How much of the TOTAL ELECTORS PERCENTAGE have the winning candidates got, and how much the loser candidates have got?

It is easy to congratulate the winners and console the losers. It is easy to attribute reasons for the winner ‘s winning and attribute reasons for the loser’s losing.

But, what reasons exist for the vast number of people NOT VOTING?
Suppose RIGHT TO REJECT option was there on the vote – would these absentee voters have voted and exercised their RIGHT TO REJECT -  or, would they have still stayed at home?

If they had exercised the RIGHT TO REJECT – in their vote itself in UP, what difference would it have made for this State?

For India to function as an efficient democracy these are pertinent questions to ask and find answers – and remedy them.

But, this said – as all this is futuristic - there is no need to take away the winners’  happiness and the losers’ introspection at this point of time.

Winners are all entitled to CONGRATULATIONS. People have reposed faith in you – Please perform in the best interests of ALL PEOPLE.

Next time, the absentee voters also must come out voluntarily and vote for you all – in all the states.

The message holds good for losers too. Please perform your job as opposition so well – that next time, the voters will all vote for you.

The Party Position (of winning candidates) is as below :









MANIPUR : Congress has emerged as the single largest Party in Manipur with 42 out of the 60 seats. BJP has drawn a Blank there.

UTTARAKHAND : Congress has emerged as the largest Party in Uttarakhand with 32 seats. BJP is the second largest with 31 seats while others have 7 seats. IN U’K, it is to be seen – if a stable coalition will emerge comfortably crossing the Half way mark of 35. BSP has 3 seats, UKD 1 seat and independents 3 seats. BJP’s Ex CM BC Khanduri lost the election this time to his Congress Rival.

PUNJAB : BJP+Shiromani AkaliDal combine have emerged as the largest combine in Punjab with 68 seats out of a total of 117 seats. Congress is the second largest with 46 seats. A heartening feature is – SAD has thrown away its SIKHS ONLY  tag and has given tickets to a number of Hindus too – who have won by comfortable margins. SAD becoming multi religious party (or secular?) is in contrast with some so called secular Parties seeking vote on caste / religion basis.

GOA : BJP+ has emerged as the largest Party (COALITION) in Goa with 24 out of a total of 40.

Uttar Pradesh : Samajwadi Party has emerged as the winner in UP with 224 seats put of a total of 403 seats. BSP stands as the second largest Party in UP with 80 seats. BJP is at third Place and Congress combine at a poor 4th place.

One lesson  for all is – to learn from SAD – Please shed all of your caste and religion based agendas in Elections. Ram Mandir can be a religious or social issue – but not a Political issue any more. BJP can shed this image – which is unnecessary for a party of its stature. It needs to learn from its own successes in Gujarat and Goa where Ram Mandir is not an Issue. Ram Mandir, in my opinion, is costing BJP too many wins - totally unnecessarily. And, I (as a devotee of Ram) say that.

Congress, for its Party, must shed its appeasement Politics, focusing one this or that religion or caste. Rahul, can be a Great Leader, if some others don't make tongue-in-cheek comments and spoil the good effects of his efforts. He may make mistakes, but can learn fast. No one can forget how he humbled the Shiv Sena by his visit to Maharashtra. This time, his UP campaigns may have failed due to various factors - but, as he said, he is in it - for the long haul.

Even Samajwadi Party and other winners need to shed their caste Orientation completely. Mr.Akilesh Yadav’s efforts seem to be in that direction – and these have reasonably paid off.

BSP, with 80 seats, should shed its Dalit Image and Dalit orientation. Ms.Mayawati must try to integrate Dalits into the main stream and not keep them as a separate Vote bank.

In sum – Unite India. Do not Divide – on any basis whatsoever.

Let us have Progress For all – with unity of all.

= yours



*  *  *  E  N  D  *  *  *

No comments:

Post a Comment