Monday, May 12, 2014
EXIT POLLS - WHAT DO THEY FORETELL? - WHAT ARE LESSONS TO LEARN (FOR EACH PARTY)
What they foretell !
Exit Polls are Great Gossiping Material. They could go wrong by a good margin. But, many politicians , media men and people interested in Politics – are apprehensive that they could, after all be right.
BJP feels and Prays that the best of the Polls, giving BJP over 300 seats, proves right – but has nightmares that the worst of the Polls may prove right and that too with the proverbial + or – 3% Margin Error, most probably the latter.
Congress on the other hand feels that the best of Polls (from its own perspective) proves right, giving it SOMEHOW, the way to Power to make all non-BJP Parties line up before Congress to join hands with it, against BJP.
These are private feelings and fears – not the public display of their Bravado.
Polls, Prayers, wishes, arguments will all continue until the counting begins – and Ends. Reality will come to haunt all after that.
All this said – even Congress does not give itself a score much above 100, as of now. BJP does not give itself less than 220, even by the worst Polls and probability of -3% margin error.
So, even if this much only is the probability – what does it indicate? There is an undeniable Modi-wave. People want Modi as the PM. People do not want Rahul or Arvind as PM. This is the fact written on the wall – absolutely undeniable, even for the Congress and AAP.
Why do the Majority of people want Modi as PM and not the other two?
Modi has proved himself to be a Good Leader in Gujarat in the last 12 years. He has won succession of Poll victories in Gujarat.
But, Congress & its UPA allies were trying hard to give a Bad name to Modi for last 12 years. In the process, they told so many blatant and unacceptable lies which can never stand the test of any Logic.
Many a time, in the process of giving Bad Name to Modi, Congress and some of its cronies were trying to give a bad name to the whole of Gujarat and its people.
People definitely did not like the way Congress stood in the way of US Government giving VISA to Modi. In the process, Congress tarnished the image of India and its legal, police and judicial processes. But, Modi stood with dignity. In the so called snoopgate, the lady and her father never complained, but Congress and her cronies were trying to tarnish the image of Modi; Rahul especially was talking – as of Modi had ordered snooping on so many WOMEN in Gujarat without their knowledge. This was a plain lie.
When leadership counts – Modi at every step proved Head and shoulders above the rest.
He started demolishing the decades old image of BJP being a communal party with his clear, ABSOLUTELY SECULAR slogans, rhetoric and image.
I do not know what RSS stands for even now. I do not know what the rest of BJP stands for, even now. But, certainly Modi stands for Secularism and for the unity and development of all Indians irrespective of caste and religion. Every word of every speech and every interview of Modi in the last several years conveyed this much to India. No doubt, some hardliners in BJP and the VHP were show spoilers.
They talked of Mandir, Hindu-Muslim divide etc. They were minor leaders. But, they gave big ammunition to Congress and others. If they all had toed the line of Modi, BJP’s tally would have been much better. Hopefully, all of them would realize that, this vote, how much ever it is, is a VOTE FOR MODI and his brand of secularism and development. Hopefully, they will remain silent for next 5 years, without raking up communal slogans.
Many Parties and many party leaders specifically targeted Modi – in possibly the worst of language. Digvijay Singh was always so. He was targeting Modi’s marital relations in an ugly manner, even when BJP was maintaining a dignified silence on Diggy’s own extra marital affairs. Mani Shankar Iyer joined the league with the Chai-wala remark. It was in very Bad Taste – and Mr. Iyer should have gracefully accepted his fault. This was Bad Politics.
Mamata, Maya and many other Party leaders did not bat an eyelid before calling Modi this, that, any thing that came to the Mouth. Modi maintained absolute dignity and maintained Political dialogue – as Political Dialogue – when others brought it down to personal abuses. Mamata’s abusive tongue itself would have raised BJP’s voting percentage in Bengal at least 2% higher. Given more time, Mamata would have lost her voting share very fast, with every single abuse she was hurling at Modi.
In Tamilnadu, Ms.Jayalalithaa didn’t commit such mistakes. The smaller parties did not energize themselves much even after Modi’s tours. They did not project Modi’s relevance effectively. But. Ms. Jayalalithaa projected herself with small, small public good related plans. These were certainly eye-catching and Vote-catching. And, during elections, it was made to appear that electricity situation had also improved! Subsequently, it went back to scarcity. That does not take away the good plans that madam was implementing.
If she maintains cordial relations with centre and seeks help, Modi will only be too willing to help her tide over the electricity crisis in Tamilnadu. Tamilnadu parties in general must reduce the chorus on Sri Lanka and find better ways to maintain relations and help the Tamils in Sri Lanka more effectively.
Maharashtra’s Shiv Sena and other groups must reduce their anti-other state chorus. It does Maharashtra great harm and reduces its Great name considerably. Raj Thackeray, especially , must realize that India and Indians must unite in our efforts to make India Great. Regionalism is the biggest enemy of nationalism.
Congress always called itself a secular party. Has it been remaining so in recent years? I feel, no. Congress was behaving like a worst communal party – dividing people in the name of religion and caste.
My feeling is – Modi has been the best statesman of India who was absolutely fair to all sections of people. No Congress leader can be compared with him at this point of time. But, some of the Younger leaders in Congress have Huge Potential in them, if only they shun the dishonest ways of current senior leaders.
AAP and Arvind Kejriwal have disappointed people of Delhi. They made so many promises and then went back on them. They were so much against corruption at first – but now, they almost seem to be willing to join hands with the same Congress, which in their own view, proved to be the most corrupt national Party.
AAP should understand that the nation has rejected AAP’s rejection of BJP and Modi and that the nation is reposing Great faith in Modi – and not in AAP. Therefore, as an honest party, AAP must co-operate with Modi and NDA. But, if it joins with Congress, it would be a tragedy for its ideology. Tell me your friend, I will tell who you are! This has happened to AAP to certain extent already.
Seats don’t matter. Intentions do. Modi wants to develop India, Unite the people and initiate a Huge developmental effort that will catapult India to the TOP LEAGUE in the world. So, other parties must also join NDA in this great effort.
This seems to be the lessons and efforts at this point of time.
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